What is victory and achieving peace? Concepts, scenarios, options
This document contains an analysis of a few approaches to and scenarios of achieving peace amid the protracted aggression of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) against Ukraine, considering humanitarian, security and international developments. It also touches on various scenarios of developments, offers assessment of strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of relevant approaches both for Ukraine and the international community. The main stress is placed on the search for the ways of achieving sustainable, secure and just peace, and on the risks of interim scenarios of developments in Ukraine, international and European security systems within the framework of the approaches to settlement.
Author: Yulia Tyshchenko, Co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Social Cohesion. Edited by Volodymyr Lupatsiy and Oleh Saakian, Co-founders of the National Platform for Resilience and Social Cohesion.
Introduction. Overall context
Ukraine’s official position towards the definition of a victory is achieving sustainable and just peace. Ukraine’s victory implies the preservation of its sovereignty, full restoration of its territorial integrity, which was violated in 2014, within internationally recognised borders, restoration of justice, recovery, development of democracy, a resilient European country based on the principles of the rule of law and observance of human rights.
These elements of victory enjoy considerable support on the part of Ukrainian society, which can be substantiated by different studies. It makes sense to hold a conversation about achieving secure peace. Secure peace is a complex of internal and external strategies in various spheres regarding the process of achieving just and comprehensive peace that are to be implemented during and after Russian aggression against Ukraine to reach resilience and recovery, as well as to ensure unity and social cohesion nationally. Secure peace is to be implemented with a view to ensuring preservation and development of Ukraine as a sovereign, democratic, European and independent country based on the principles of respect for the Charter of the United Nations (hereinafter: UN Charter), human rights and the rule of law, which guarantees security and democratic, social and economic progress on the European continent.
Among the options of achieving comprehensive peace, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace formula (comprising 10 points and annexes) stipulates the following – a just punishment for Russia for crimes committed against Ukraine and protection of life “by all means available and allowed by the UN Charter”.
The formula also mentions the restoration of security and security guarantees from other countries. In this formula, the process of achieving a truly comprehensive, just and sustainable peace is only possible on the condition of the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty within its internationally recognised borders and an internationally and legally recognised end to the war. To achieve this main goal means establishing a clear framework of confirming the end of the war, assuming obligations and granting security guarantees, creating conditions for the post-war settlement, agreeing on the terms of financing reconstruction of Ukraine as well as developing mechanisms for deterring Russia’s (or any other country’s, for that matter) aggression against Ukraine in the future.
While presenting his Victory Plan (consisting of 5 points) behind closed doors in October 2024 in the Ukrainian Parliament, Zelenskyy said that “victory offers the opportunity to live on one’s own land and according to one’s law, choosing one’s own future” which is tied with the EU and NATO. He did not mention the restoration of control over the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine. However, he did refer to the peace plan represented in 2023 that did not mention territorial concessions to Russia or refusal to restore justice, etc. The Victory Plan is based on security support from partners and activities aimed at achieving “peace through strength”.
At the same time, one may observe a general strategic uncertainty as for the ways, methods and resources for achieving victory as well as sustainable, just, comprehensive and secure peace. The war of endurance (attrition) against Ukraine and the West continues to be waged by Russia. Statements are being made about strategic defence, and containment of Russia by Ukraine, whereas there is a gradual decrease in military and financial aid from Ukraine’s partners as well as strategic political decisions in terms of offering Ukraine security guarantees. NATO member states take a cautious stance as regards delivering certain types of weapons to Ukraine lest it should lead to further deterioration of relationships with a nuclear Russia. This is happening against a backdrop of a precarious demographic situation in Ukraine, deterioration of its social and economic condition, humanitarian crises and a catastrophic impact on its environment. Challenges regarding the issue of effective mobilisation come again to the fore. A certain degree of tension, which is caused by the war, is palpable in Ukrainian society.
Despite the development of resilience, human safety has been dealt a serious blow, as well as energy safety due to the destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by Russia. All these elements result in active discussions of various options for ending the war or for its temporary termination, in particular through political decisions and potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Partner countries have limited resources, their economic situation is on the wane, they are beset by political crises, experiencing lack of consensus on their further policies towards the war, the threat of political populism and the prospect of right-wing forces coming to power. Internal problems faced by Ukraine’s partners are taking more priority amid the security crisis and war in Ukraine. At the same time, the escalation in the Middle East has also become a priority issue on the world’s agenda, forcing Ukraine’s western allies to divide resources to put out the fire of other large-scale conflicts.
Also, there is a lack of security guarantees on the part of different countries for Ukraine. No clear guarantees have been offered regarding Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Western countries seem reluctant to issue effective security guarantees. Bilateral security agreements signed between Ukraine and other countries do not outline clear parameters or guarantees of common action in the case of further military escalation or aggression. (As of 17th October 2024, 27 agreements were signed, 7 of them with the Group of Seven. 19 agreements were signed with the countries that joined the Declaration and with the European Union).
At the same time, Western countries have not clearly articulated their clearly defined strategies of their vision of Russia’s future in many dimensions. Nor have they come up with a view of Ukraine’s victory, of achieving peace or of the ways and means for achieving this victory in tactical and strategic terms.
Also, agreements about potential peace that would imply a strategic waiver of the claim on territories would not be accepted by Ukrainian society or army, which would cause tension and conflicts in the internal Ukrainian dimension followed by complex repercussions for security, migration situation, the future etc. Despite the negative consequences of the war, the fatigue of Ukrainian society and unprecedented security threats to civilians, manifestations of societal resilience can be seen as well as expectations for justice and recovery. Territorial compromises will also mean a further risk of erosion of international law and the international security system. They will also exacerbate the transatlantic tension and demoralisation of other countries that have fallen or may potentially fall victim to Russian aggression.
The definition of Victory and achieving just peace for Ukrainian society at the end of the third year of the full-scale Russian invasion are possible in the context of the existing scenarios of developments, taking into consideration resources and risks regarding solutions (a wide range of them regarding Russia, security, nuclear deterrence, energy and economic security, challenges in the field of international relations, existing and potential changes and conflicts in other parts of the world, etc.).
Russia as an aggressor country does not signal genuine readiness for negotiations, while updating its nuclear doctrine, integrating occupied territories into itself, exploiting resources from Ukrainian occupied territories, increasing military expenditure, illegally relocating and conscripting into its army people residing in the occupied territories, mobilising soldiers in other countries, speaking about negotiations “on Russian terms” (annexation of Ukrainian territories, the so-called demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine) and internalising the war.
The goal of this text is to analyse scenarios and options for achieving peace for Ukrainian society, while taking into account opportunities, resources and positions taken by partner countries. This analysis will be conducted based on the description of their strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and potential consequences for Ukraine and EU member countries. The objective is the analysis of strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities for the implementation of different basic scenarios of achieving peace and victory.
These are not absolute and final scenarios. Changes and amendments are possible due to the rapidly evolving context.
On the whole, 5 general scenarios (approaches) have been outlined for achieving peace (termination of war) that do not imply the termination of war as a result of full restoration of state sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders. These scenarios cannot be fully regarded as such that have contributed to achieving sustainable, safe and stable peace. Nor do they mean victory. They are rather “peace through avoiding defeat”. However, they are possible solutions from the menu of available options in view of economic, security and political resources as well as of awareness of their potential fragility. In terms of methodology, a SWOT analysis has been conducted regarding these scenarios; common traits and consequences for Ukrainian and international dimensions have been highlighted.
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