Resilience and cohesion of Ukrainian society during the war

This report was drafted by the team of the Ukrainian Independent Center for Political Research (UCIPR) as part of the activities of the National Platform for Resilience and Social Cohesion (National Platform). This civic initiative was launched in February 2018 (formerly known as the National Platform ‘Dialogue on Peace and Secure Reintegration’).

The report is based on data on events in 12 oblasts of Ukraine which are important for shaping a policy of national resilience. The project’s target oblasts were selected based on analysis of changes in cohesion of local populations due to the outbreak of military operations and include Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Kherson, Chernivtsi, and Chernihiv oblasts. For data collection, we distinguish between the temporarily occupied areas, frontline and deoccupied areas, and relatively rear areas.

UCIPR is grateful for the materials supplied by participants of the Regional Network of National Platform for Resilience and Social Cohesion, Volodymyr Merezhko, Denys Hrechko, Andrii Romanenko, Mykola Yatskiv, Dmytro Arabadzhyiev, Oksana Ivasiv, Viktoriia Demchenko, Tamara Astakhova, Diana Barynova, Dementii Bielyi, Nataliia Nechaieva-Yuriichuk, Liubov Muliovana.

SUMMARY

The situation at the front line.

In 2025, the front line crossed into Dnipropetrovsk oblast for the first time. By the end of December, 11 population centres were under Russian occupation, with roughly the same number located in the grey zone. The situation in Donetsk oblast remained highly volatile. Hostilities intensified throughout the monitoring period, and on 23 December the capture of Siversk was reported. Heavy fighting continued around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian forces also made gains along the Kostiantynivka and Lyman axes, signalling a gradual shift of combat operations toward the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration.

In northern Kharkiv oblast, Russian forces attempted to expand the area of active hostilities, though with no significant results. In autumn 2025, they sought to infiltrate Kupiansk, including through underground infrastructure networks. In December, Ukrainian units contained enemy groups and disrupted their supply lines. Active fighting also persisted in the areas of Vovchansk, Prylipka, Dvorichanske, Izbytske, Vilcha, and Obukhivka.

Tensions remained elevated in Zaporizhzhia oblast, with the most intense attacks recorded along the Huliaipole axis. Russian forces attempted to advance near Zatyshshia, Nove Zaporizhzhia, Zelenyi Hai, and Huliaipole itself.

In Kherson oblast, Russian forces continued attempts to conduct offensive operations in the area of the Antonivka Road Bridge (Antonivskyi Bridge) and on the islands in the Dnipro estuary, sustaining the risk of localised escalation.

Luhansk oblast, with the exception of small areas, remained occupied.

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